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Mapping Italy: scenario and political risks

The Italian political system is showing diverging signs. Party fragmentation is high and party leaderships remain in competition with each other.

On the left, Enrico Letta, the new secretary of the Democratic Party (Partito Democratico or PD), and Giuseppe Conte, the new leader of the 5 Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle), will have to understand how to manage their relationship in the future. Next to them there is the centrist galaxy, made up of small parties but which are in any case fundamental for a possible electoral victory, where Matteo Renzi and former minister Carlo Calenda are located. To the left of the PD there is also a group of small parties such as the Free and Equal (Liberi e Uguali or LeU) party of Health Minister Speranza and the exiles of the 5 Star Movement.

On the right the situation is clearer, but no less complex: Giorgia Meloni, with her Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia) party, is now close to Salvini's League (Lega) in the polls. If the electoral trend continues, Meloni will be able to openly challenge the leadership of the former interior minister. In any case, the weight of the Brothers of Italy in the coalition is greatly strengthened. There remains Go Italy (Forza Italia) which, although in constant decline, maintains support that fluctuates between 7 and 10 percent. Fewer parties, therefore, but no less divided: Go Italy is a centrist and popular party, the League supports the Draghi government as a nationalist force and is forming a new European group with the Polish PiS and Orban’s Hungarian party, while the Brothers of Italy are in opposition and are part of the European Conservative group. Bringing everything back under a single leadership will not be easy.