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Mapping Italy: scenario and political risks

In recent weeks, Health Minister Roberto Speranza has been put under pressure to manage the pandemic by the right wing of the ruling coalition (League and Go Italy). The chaos in the supply of vaccines and the prolongation of the lockdown weakened the position of the minister, who kept his place in the transition from the Conte to the Draghi government. President Draghi defended Speranza in public and dismissed the rumors about his possible replacement but was also forced to correct his policy providing for a reopening plan that will be implemented in the coming days. Draghi showed his method: intervening on policies without altering the balance between parties, which however remain largely influential on the executive. For this reason, continuity with the Conte 2 government remains strong, both in the composition of the executive and in its basic program, despite Draghi's adjustments. In order to maintain his position, the Prime Minister risks appearing a prisoner of the parties and perhaps excessively tied to the old approach of Giuseppe Conte.