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Mapping Italy: scenario and political risks

Matteo Salvini launched the idea of ​​a centre-right federation aiming to forge an alliance with Silvio Berlusconi’s Go Italy (Forza Italia). Indeed, both parties support Mario Draghi’s government and Salvini is pressing for closer cooperation between the League (Lega) and Go Italy.Salvini is in trouble due to the rise of Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia), now close to 20% in the polls and a few points from the League.Meloni has the advantage of being the only force in opposition, a position that allows her to increase consensus. Thus Salvini is trying to win over Go Italy, which is also in electoral difficulty due to the declining leadership of Berlusconi.

The operation is reasonable on the parliamentary level, where the right-wing forces can coordinate better and weigh more in the decisions of the majority, but it appears premature on the political level. It is not yet known when the national vote will be held, or which electoral law will be used,  and the first polls show that the federation would in total gain less consensus than the two parties separately. The result seems a sum of two weaknesses: that of Go Italy's consensus and that of Salvini in comparison with Meloni. For these reasons, the federation may not work well. It is more a sign of trouble than good health.